Festivals

๐ŸŽ‰Live

Will Songkran draw a record crowd this year?

Attendance versus last year.

37.0%

Jul 5, 12:39 PM

เธฟ201.1K total volume 111 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 37%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being ticket pre-sale pace.

Confidence in current pricing89%

Bull case

  • Ticket pre-sale pace points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Weather forecast for festival dates could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Ticket pre-sale paceWeather forecast for festival dates

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
๐ŸŽ†

Worawit Boonmeeยท 6h

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

๐ŸŒ™

Chayapa Kittiyaยท 2d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

1 replies
๐Ÿ๏ธ

Nattapong Rattanakosinยท 2d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

10 replies
๐ŸŽ‹

Apinya Boonmeeยท 3d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

๐Ÿฆ‹

Patcharee Jaideeยท 3d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

๐Ÿฆœ

Sirikorn Lohachaiยท 3d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

๐Ÿ˜

Pongsakorn Chaiyapornยท 3d

Bought more on the dip

GIF
3 replies
๐Ÿข

Preecha Ruangritยท 3d

This aged... not great