Weather

๐ŸŒก๏ธ

Will Surat Thani hit 42ยฐC or higher this week?

Thai Meteorological Department forecast market.

48.0%

Jul 5, 12:32 PM

เธฟ18.7K total volume 51 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 48%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being current heat index trend.

Confidence in current pricing65%

Bull case

  • Current heat index trend points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • El Nino / La Nina phase could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Current heat index trendEl Nino / La Nina phase

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Comments

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๐Ÿ›บ

Weerapong Ruangritยท 3h

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

๐ŸŒ™

Chayapa Kittiyaยท 19h

Feels like a coinflip honestly

๐ŸŒถ๏ธ

Patcharee Amnuayยท 2d

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

1 replies
๐ŸŽ

Busaba Phromwongยท 2d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

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Worawit Jaideeยท 2d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

2 replies
๐ŸŒŠ

Sakda Tantivejkulยท 3d

Bought more on the dip

2 replies