Festivals

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Will Surin Elephant Round-up draw a record crowd this year?

Attendance versus last year.

53.0%

Jul 5, 12:30 PM

เธฟ238.2K total volume 131 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 53%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being ticket pre-sale pace.

Confidence in current pricing86%

Bull case

  • Ticket pre-sale pace points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Weather forecast for festival dates could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Ticket pre-sale paceWeather forecast for festival dates

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
๐ŸŒ™

Weerapong Tantivejkulยท 9h

market's asleep on this one, free money

๐Ÿฆ‹

Duangjai Sirikayaยท 1d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

๐Ÿฏ

Panupong Praditpongยท 1d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

2 replies
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Thanawat Peerananยท 1d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

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Duangjai Amnuayยท 2d

This aged... not great

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Suchada Charoenkulยท 2d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced