Thailand Politics

🏛️

Will the Klong Thai Party lead the governing coalition after the next reshuffle?

Coalition math, resolved by seat count.

70.0%

Jul 5, 12:32 PM

฿2.5M total volume 247 comments

AI Summary

Updated 49m ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 70%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being coalition whip counts.

Confidence in current pricing72%

Bull case

  • Coalition whip counts points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Recent by-election swings could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Coalition whip countsRecent by-election swings

Related news

NNikkei Asia· 8h

New data moves the needle on will the Klong Thai Party lead the governing coalition after the next reshuffle

The move follows a string of related developments that market watchers say were underpriced.

Will the Klong Thai Party lead the governing coalition after the next reshuffle?70%

Related markets

⚖️PoliticsAI

Will the Constitutional Court accept the petition against the Prachachon Rung Arun Party for review?

Yes29%-1
No71%-4
฿4.8M vol
57
🏛️PoliticsAI

Will the Naam Jai Party lead the governing coalition after the next reshuffle?

Yes28%+4
No72%-3
฿4.5M vol
155
⚖️Politics

Will the Constitutional Court accept the petition against the Ruang Rung Party for review?

Yes57%+5
No43%+4
฿4M vol
296
🏛️Politics

Will the Sayam Kao Na Party lead the governing coalition after the next reshuffle?

Yes66%-1
No34%-2
฿3.7M vol
14
⚖️Politics

Will the Constitutional Court accept the petition against the Kao Klai Party Party for review?

Yes62%-1
No38%-3
฿3.5M vol
75

Comments

🪷
🌾

Anucha Pattaranutaporn· 3d

This aged well

1 replies