Thailand Politics

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Will the Sayam Kao Na Party lead the governing coalition after the next reshuffle?

Coalition math, resolved by seat count.

39.0%

Jul 5, 12:32 PM

฿1M total volume 337 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 39%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being coalition whip counts.

Confidence in current pricing66%

Bull case

  • Coalition whip counts points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Recent by-election swings could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Coalition whip countsRecent by-election swings

Related news

TThe Nation· 2d

New data moves the needle on will the Sayam Kao Na Party lead the governing coalition after the next reshuffle

Officials have not yet commented, but early indicators suggest a shift is underway.

Will the Sayam Kao Na Party lead the governing coalition after the next reshuffle?39%

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Comments

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Pongsakorn Chotirosseranee· 5h

This is way too high, fading this all day

🎋

Apinya Boonmee· 1d

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

🏵️

Patcharee Pattaranutaporn· 1d

This aged well

3 replies
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Duangjai Sirikaya· 1d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

🌶️

Patcharee Amnuay· 1d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

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Apinya Thongchai· 4d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

6 replies
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Kwan Lohachai· 4d

This is way too high, fading this all day

1 replies