Crypto

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Will the Thai SEC approve a retail crypto ETF this year?

Regulatory tracker.

26.0%

Jul 5, 12:28 PM

฿726.4K total volume 326 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 26%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being regional regulatory precedent.

Confidence in current pricing93%

Bull case

  • Regional regulatory precedent points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Industry lobbying activity could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Regional regulatory precedentIndustry lobbying activity

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Comments

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Chanya Thongchai· 11h

This aged well