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Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting?

Global macro that sets the tone for Thai markets.

46.0%

Jul 5, 12:42 PM

เธฟ41.3M total volume 3 comments

AI Summary

Updated 10m ago

Pricing currently favors No at 46%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being latest us jobs report.

Confidence in current pricing81%

Bull case

  • Latest US jobs report points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Core PCE inflation trend could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Latest US jobs reportCore PCE inflation trend

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
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Pimchanok Lohachaiยท 8h

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

๐Ÿต๏ธ

Patcharee Pattaranutapornยท 12h

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

2 replies
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Waraporn Srisawatยท 1d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

๐ŸŒŠ

Patcharee Lohachaiยท 1d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

GIF
๐Ÿฅ

Yupa Aksornยท 2d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

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Teerapat Praditpongยท 2d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

๐Ÿœ

Panupong Thongchaiยท 3d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

2 replies
๐Ÿฅ

Yupa Aksornยท 3d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

2 replies