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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting?

Global macro that sets the tone for Thai markets.

33.0%

Jul 5, 12:35 PM

เธฟ48.9M total volume 310 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 33%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being latest us jobs report.

Confidence in current pricing75%

Bull case

  • Latest US jobs report points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Core PCE inflation trend could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Latest US jobs reportCore PCE inflation trend

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
๐Ÿชท

Suriya Wongprasertยท 1d

market's asleep on this one, free money

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Preecha Tantivejkulยท 1d

Volume just spiked, something's moving

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Apinya Thongchaiยท 2d

This is way too high, fading this all day