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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 50bps at its next meeting?

Global macro that sets the tone for Thai markets.

65.0%

Jul 5, 12:43 PM

เธฟ10.9M total volume 78 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 65%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being latest us jobs report.

Confidence in current pricing91%

Bull case

  • Latest US jobs report points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Core PCE inflation trend could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Latest US jobs reportCore PCE inflation trend

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
๐ŸŒŠ

Orawan Kanjanapasยท 1d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

1 replies
๐Ÿต๏ธ

Chotiwut Sombatยท 2d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

3 replies
๐Ÿฏ

Chanya Kittiyaยท 2d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

โ˜€๏ธ

Napat Peerananยท 3d

market's asleep on this one, free money

1 replies
๐Ÿ‰

Ladda Jaideeยท 3d

market's asleep on this one, free money

3 replies
๐Ÿ›บ

Suriya Chotirosseraneeยท 3d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced