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🇺🇸Live

Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting?

Global macro that sets the tone for Thai markets.

62.0%

Jul 5, 12:31 PM

฿59.7M total volume 123 comments

AI Summary

Updated 42m ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 62%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being latest us jobs report.

Confidence in current pricing90%

Bull case

  • Latest US jobs report points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Core PCE inflation trend could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Latest US jobs reportCore PCE inflation trend

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Comments

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🥁

Kamon Chotirosseranee· 8h

Bought more on the dip

6 replies
🏵️

Chotiwut Sombat· 15h

Bought more on the dip

3 replies
🏵️

Patcharee Pattaranutaporn· 1d

This aged... not great

1 replies
🥁

Pongsakorn Chotirosseranee· 1d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

🍜

Panupong Thongchai· 2d

market's asleep on this one, free money

🏯

Chanya Kittiya· 2d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

🥭

Worawit Jaidee· 2d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

3 replies
🦜

Sirikorn Lohachai· 2d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

🐉

Ladda Suksawat· 3d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

3 replies
🌙

Weerapong Tantivejkul· 3d

market's asleep on this one, free money