World

🇺🇸

Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting?

Global macro that sets the tone for Thai markets.

42.0%

Jul 5, 12:33 PM

฿59.5M total volume 185 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 42%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being latest us jobs report.

Confidence in current pricing62%

Bull case

  • Latest US jobs report points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Core PCE inflation trend could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Latest US jobs reportCore PCE inflation trend

Related news

NNikkei Asia· 1d

New data moves the needle on will the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting

Local reporting adds context that could reshape expectations heading into the resolution window.

Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting?42%

Related markets

Comments

🪷
🌶️

Patcharee Amnuay· 5h

This aged well

🛕

Nutthida Peeranan· 6h

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

2 replies
🎋

Kritsada Praditpong· 14h

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

GIF
🦋

Duangjai Sirikaya· 1d

This aged... not great

1 replies
🎆

Worawit Boonmee· 1d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

2 replies
🥁

Pongsakorn Chotirosseranee· 2d

Volume just spiked, something's moving

🥁

Pongsakorn Chotirosseranee· 2d

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

GIF
🦋

Somsak Sombat· 2d

This aged... not great

🦜

Suchada Wongsawang· 2d

This is way too high, fading this all day

2 replies
🏝️

Nirun Nakornthap· 3d

This is way too high, fading this all day

2 replies
🎋

Nichakan Amnuay· 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

🍜

Duangjai Charoenkul· 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this