Festivals

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Will Ubon Candle Festival draw a record crowd this year?

Attendance versus last year.

43.0%

Jul 5, 12:37 PM

เธฟ488.3K total volume 66 comments

AI Summary

Updated 25m ago

Pricing currently favors No at 43%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being ticket pre-sale pace.

Confidence in current pricing90%

Bull case

  • Ticket pre-sale pace points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Weather forecast for festival dates could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Ticket pre-sale paceWeather forecast for festival dates

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Comments

๐Ÿชท
๐Ÿฆ‹

Chalermchai Lohachaiยท 21h

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

๐Ÿ๏ธ

Preecha Tantivejkulยท 1d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

GIF
๐Ÿต๏ธ

Pimchanok Chaiyapornยท 2d

Bought more on the dip

GIF
3 replies
๐Ÿฅญ

Rungnapha Suksawatยท 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

6 replies