Economy

💱

Will USD/THB close above 35.00 by month end?

Baht exchange rate market.

52.0%

Jul 5, 12:25 PM

฿4.6M total volume 327 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 52%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being fed rate path expectations.

Confidence in current pricing82%

Bull case

  • Fed rate path expectations points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Tourism dollar inflows could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Fed rate path expectationsTourism dollar inflows

Related news

TThai PBS World· 2d

Traders react as odds shift on: Will USD/THB close above 35.00 by month end?

Officials have not yet commented, but early indicators suggest a shift is underway.

Will USD/THB close above 35.00 by month end?52%

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Comments

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🐅

Chanya Sombat· 1d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

3 replies
🦋

Patcharee Jaidee· 1d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

🦜

Anong Sirikaya· 3d

This aged... not great

🏯

Chanya Kittiya· 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

GIF