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Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?

Storm track prediction.

24.0%

Jul 5, 12:30 PM

฿284.2K total volume 338 comments

AI Summary

Updated 20m ago

Pricing currently favors No at 24%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being current storm formation in the south china sea.

Confidence in current pricing64%

Bull case

Current storm formation in the South China Sea points toward Yes resolving true.
Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

Historical seasonal base rate could flip this quickly.
Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.

Current storm formation in the South China SeaHistorical seasonal base rate

Related news

BBangkok Post· 15h

Traders react as odds shift on: Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?

A second independent source has now corroborated the initial report, adding confidence to the read.

Will a named tropical storm make landfall in the Gulf of Thailand this season?24%

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