Crypto

🪙

Will Bitcoin trade below 0.85x its price from 30 days ago?

Volume-weighted exchange average at deadline.

67.0%

Jul 5, 12:45 PM

฿8.1M total volume 85 comments

AI Summary

Updated 49m ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 67%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent volatility regime.

Confidence in current pricing87%

Bull case

  • Recent volatility regime points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • US rate expectations could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent volatility regimeUS rate expectations

Related news

KKhaosod English· 19h

New data moves the needle on will Bitcoin trade below 0.85x its price from 30 days ago

The move follows a string of related developments that market watchers say were underpriced.

Will Bitcoin trade below 0.85x its price from 30 days ago?67%

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Comments

🪷
🥭

Ampai Kanjanapas· 1d

Volume just spiked, something's moving

7 replies
🐅

Nirun Ruangrit· 1d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

2 replies
🌙

Chayapa Kittiya· 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this