World

🛢️

Will Brent crude oil close above $90/barrel this month?

Energy prices that hit Thai import costs directly.

57.0%

Jul 5, 12:28 PM

฿938.7K total volume 112 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 57%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being opec+ supply decisions.

Confidence in current pricing68%

Bull case

  • OPEC+ supply decisions points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Middle East shipping disruptions could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
OPEC+ supply decisionsMiddle East shipping disruptions

Related markets

🇺🇸WorldLiveAI

Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting?

Yes62%-3
No38%-3
฿59.7M vol
123
🇺🇸World

Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting?

Yes42%+2
No58%-2
฿59.5M vol
185
🇺🇸World

Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting?

Yes33%+6
No67%+3
฿48.9M vol
310
🇺🇸WorldAI

Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps at its next meeting?

Yes46%+4
No54%+6
฿41.3M vol
3
🇺🇸WorldAI

Will the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 50bps at its next meeting?

Yes65%-5
No35%-3
฿10.9M vol
78

Comments

🪷
🛺

Weerapong Ruangrit· 8h

Feels like a coinflip honestly

☀️

Chanya Thongchai· 1d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

🏯

Chanya Kittiya· 1d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

🦜

Sirikorn Lohachai· 1d

This is way too high, fading this all day

🥁

Yupa Maneerat· 1d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

3 replies
🐢

Preecha Ruangrit· 1d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

🌶️

Patcharee Amnuay· 1d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

🌶️

Patcharee Amnuay· 2d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

☀️

Napat Peeranan· 2d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

🥁

Yupa Aksorn· 3d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

🐘

Kwan Lohachai· 3d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

🏝️

Preecha Tantivejkul· 3d

This aged... not great

🛺

Weerapong Ruangrit· 3d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride