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Will Brent crude oil close above $90/barrel this month?

Energy prices that hit Thai import costs directly.

37.0%

Jul 5, 12:25 PM

฿2.9M total volume 113 comments

AI Summary

Updated 3h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 37%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being opec+ supply decisions.

Confidence in current pricing88%

Bull case

  • OPEC+ supply decisions points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Middle East shipping disruptions could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
OPEC+ supply decisionsMiddle East shipping disruptions

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Comments

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Ratana Boonmee· 1d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

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Ratana Boonmee· 2d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry