Crypto

🪙

Will Ethereum trade above 1.25x its price from 30 days ago?

Volume-weighted exchange average at deadline.

50.0%

Jul 5, 12:33 PM

฿36.1M total volume 68 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 50%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being recent volatility regime.

Confidence in current pricing67%

Bull case

  • Recent volatility regime points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • US rate expectations could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Recent volatility regimeUS rate expectations

Related news

TThe Nation· 1d

What to know before will Ethereum trade above 1.25x its price from 30 days ago

Officials have not yet commented, but early indicators suggest a shift is underway.

Will Ethereum trade above 1.25x its price from 30 days ago?50%

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Comments

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🏵️

Pimchanok Sombat· 5h

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

🎏

Napat Rattanakosin· 11h

Feels like a coinflip honestly

3 replies
🎆

Teerapat Praditpong· 18h

Feels like a coinflip honestly

🌙

Chayapa Kittiya· 1d

Bought more on the dip

🛕

Nutthida Peeranan· 1d

This aged... not great

🌊

Patcharee Lohachai· 2d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

🎆

Weerapong Wongsawang· 2d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

🌾

Malee Sombat· 2d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

3 replies
🐘

Napat Phromwong· 3d

market's asleep on this one, free money

3 replies
🌶️

Benyapa Chotirosseranee· 3d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

🐘

Kwan Lohachai· 3d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride