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Will global gold prices set a new all-time high this quarter?

Safe-haven demand tracker.

51.0%

Jul 5, 12:40 PM

เธฟ1.7M total volume 247 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 51%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being central bank buying trends.

Confidence in current pricing74%

Bull case

  • Central bank buying trends points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Dollar strength trajectory could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Central bank buying trendsDollar strength trajectory

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Comments

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Kamon Thongchaiยท 1d

Feels like a coinflip honestly