Weather

🌡️

Will Hat Yai hit 42°C or higher this week?

Thai Meteorological Department forecast market.

68.0%

Jul 5, 12:40 PM

฿116.7K total volume 75 comments

AI Summary

Updated 1h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 68%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being current heat index trend.

Confidence in current pricing83%

Bull case

  • Current heat index trend points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • El Nino / La Nina phase could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Current heat index trendEl Nino / La Nina phase

Related news

CCoconuts Bangkok· 2d

Here's what changed overnight on will Hat Yai hit 42°C or higher this week

Independent analysts remain divided, citing conflicting signals from the last two weeks of reporting.

Will Hat Yai hit 42°C or higher this week?68%

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Comments

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🏝️

Pimchanok Lohachai· 2h

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

🐘

Somchai Jaidee· 1d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

2 replies
☀️

Chanya Thongchai· 1d

Yikes, didn't see that news coming