Weather

🌡️

Will Koh Samui hit 41°C or higher this week?

Thai Meteorological Department forecast market.

59.0%

Jul 5, 12:38 PM

฿67.3K total volume 5 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors Yes at 59%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being current heat index trend.

Confidence in current pricing82%

Bull case

  • Current heat index trend points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • El Nino / La Nina phase could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Current heat index trendEl Nino / La Nina phase

Related news

BBangkok Post· 1d

Analysts split on will Koh Samui hit 41°C or higher this week

Fresh data released this morning has traders re-pricing the outlook, with volume up sharply in the last few hours.

Will Koh Samui hit 41°C or higher this week?59%

Related markets

Comments

🪷
🐘

Chotiwut Wongprasert· 6h

This is way too high, fading this all day

7 replies
🌊

Patcharee Lohachai· 13h

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

1 replies
🎆

Weerapong Wongsawang· 17h

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

☀️

Chanya Thongchai· 1d

Adding this to my watchlist, waiting for a better entry

🏯

Panupong Praditpong· 1d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

🎆

Teerapat Praditpong· 2d

This aged... not great

🌶️

Patcharee Rattanakosin· 2d

Called it three days ago, screenshot this

🌙

Weerapong Tantivejkul· 2d

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

🌊

Patcharee Lohachai· 2d

This is way too high, fading this all day

🐘

Pongsakorn Chaiyaporn· 2d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

🍜

Waraporn Srisawat· 3d

Underrated market, more people should be trading this

🍜

Arthit Kanjanapas· 3d

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

🦜

Anong Sirikaya· 3d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

🎆

Waraporn Srisawat· 3d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

🎋

Nichakan Amnuay· 3d

This is way too high, fading this all day

2 replies