Festivals

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Will Phuket Vegetarian Festival draw a record crowd this year?

Attendance versus last year.

45.0%

Jul 5, 12:27 PM

เธฟ318.6K total volume 194 comments

AI Summary

Updated 2h ago

Pricing currently favors No at 45%. Volume and recent order flow suggest the market has priced in most public information, with the largest remaining swing factor being ticket pre-sale pace.

Confidence in current pricing68%

Bull case

  • Ticket pre-sale pace points toward Yes resolving true.
  • Historical base rates for similar questions skew higher than current price.
  • Order flow over the last 24h has been net buyers on Yes.

Bear case

  • Weather forecast for festival dates could flip this quickly.
  • Thin liquidity outside the top-of-book means the price can be misleading.
  • A key event before resolution could shift sentiment sharply.
Ticket pre-sale paceWeather forecast for festival dates

Related news

BBangkok Postยท 2d

Explainer: the numbers behind "Will Phuket Vegetarian Festival draw a record crowd this year?"

Independent analysts remain divided, citing conflicting signals from the last two weeks of reporting.

Will Phuket Vegetarian Festival draw a record crowd this year?45%

Related markets

Comments

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Pongsakorn Chaiyapornยท 7h

Yikes, didn't see that news coming

3 replies
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Preecha Ruangritยท 14h

This aged well

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Suchada Charoenkulยท 15h

The AI summary is sleeping on the bear case here

2 replies
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Sirikorn Lohachaiยท 16h

Volume just spiked, something's moving

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Suchada Lohachaiยท 20h

Bought more on the dip

3 replies
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Arthit Kanjanapasยท 1d

Confidence score on the AI card looks off to me

2 replies
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Preecha Tantivejkulยท 1d

The resolution criteria here is actually pretty clear, good market

3 replies
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Sakda Rattanakosinยท 1d

Feels like a coinflip honestly

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Pongsakorn Chotirosseraneeยท 1d

Locking in profit at this price, thanks for the ride

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Anucha Pattaranutapornยท 1d

Whale just took a huge position, check the order book

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Yupa Maneeratยท 2d

Volume just spiked, something's moving

3 replies
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Kwan Lohachaiยท 2d

Anyone have a source for this? seems overpriced

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Waraporn Srisawatยท 3d

This aged... not great

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Weerapong Ruangritยท 3d

This is basically decided already, no idea why it's not at 95%+

GIF
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Weerapong Ruangritยท 3d

Volume just spiked, something's moving

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Napat Phromwongยท 3d

market's asleep on this one, free money